Demand for Canada solana ETFs could be muted as US versions wait their turn
Industry watchers note that SOL ETFs have attracted a fraction of the demand for bitcoin and ether ETFs
Akif CUBUK/Shutterstock and Adobe modified by Blockworks
This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.
We’ve highlighted the milestone that is spot solana ETFs launching on the Toronto Stock Exchange, but industry watchers aren’t expecting big demand initially.
ETF.com analyst Sumit Roy noted that spot ether ETFs in Canada hold about $500 million in assets — roughly one-tenth of the money in Canadian spot crypto ETFs overall. The rest resides in bitcoin products.
“We’ve seen a similar phenomenon here in the US, where ether ETFs have attracted a fraction of the demand that bitcoin ETFs have,” Roy told me. “And so it’s reasonable to assume that SOL, which is an even less popular cryptocurrency than ether, will have less demand in turn.”
The market cap of ether is roughly 3x larger than that of solana — at $190 billion, compared to SOL’s $65 billion.
Most US investors might wait for US-listed solana ETFs before seeking out that exposure, Roy added. Even then, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart said frankly: “I don’t see a massive wall of demand for solana ETFs here in the US.”
Volatility Shares’ two US solana futures ETFs have just $15 million in combined AUM after nearly a month on the market.
“That said, over time, I think SOL ETFs can grow,” Roy said. “Solana is a vibrant blockchain that’s at the center of the memecoin phenomenon.”
As for when we could see spot solana ETFs in the US, Seyffart previously pinned the odds of SEC approval at 70% by the end of the year.
He told me this morning he still expects those funds — as well as proposals to allow staking in the US ETH products — to get the green light in the coming months.
“Final deadlines for both of those things are in October 2025, but the SEC could move quicker if they wanted,” Seyffart said.
As noted yesterday, Canada beating the US to crypto ETFs is nothing new. Its spot bitcoin and ether ETFs launched three years before similar products hit the US market. Heck, Canada welcomed the first ETF ever in 1990 — three years before the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) debuted in the US.
“I don’t think the SEC will feel any pressure from what regulators in Canada do,” Roy said. “They will move to the beat of their own drum as they’ve always done.”
Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:
- The Breakdown: Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily.
- 0xResearch: Alpha in your inbox. Think like an analyst.
- Empire: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.
- Forward Guidance: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.
- The Drop: Apps, games, memes and more.
- Lightspeed: All things Solana.
- Supply Shock: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.
