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Research

Sky is the largest yield-bearing stablecoin issuer, with USDS supply up 47% year-to-date to $8.1B, of which $5.7B is deposited in sUSDS. Combined with DAI, total stablecoin supply has reached $12.3B, making Sky the third-largest stablecoin issuer behind Tether and Circle. Sky generates $161M in annualized NII and is transitioning to a fully programmatic mechanism for routing those earnings to tokenholders. This report breaks down the Sky ecosystem, analyzes its financials, assesses the role of Agents, and provides a framework for valuing SKY.

Research

Short duration prediction markets have quietly become one of the biggest drivers of activity on Polymarket, generating nearly 40% of daily fees despite accounting for just 16% of total volume. But beneath the surface, these markets are increasingly dominated by professional algorithmic traders extracting small edges at massive scale while retail traders continue chasing volatility despite consistently losing money. In this report, I break down the wallet level behavior behind these markets, the strategies profitable bots are running, and what Polymarket needs to do to maintain its lead as competition rapidly intensifies.

Research

HIP-4 is being underframed as Hyperliquid’s entry into prediction markets. The bigger shift is that HyperCore is adding a new payoff primitive: HIP-3 expanded what assets deployers could list, while HIP-4 expands how those markets can resolve. That opens the door to bounded payoffs around prices, rates, spreads, volatility, protocol risk, and other measurable outcomes, with prediction markets representing only one expression of a broader design space.

Research

Western Union is one of the most mispriced setups in payments.Western Union is one of the most mispriced setups in payments. The market is pricing the business for terminal decline, but beneath the headline revenue shrink, Digital and Consumer Services are growing double digits and now represent 40% of the mix. The stablecoin pivot is what makes the risk/reward asymmetric: USDPT flips WU's settlement infrastructure from a cost center into a yield-generating layer, while the company already controls the physical entry and exit points that most crypto-native players lack. At roughly 5x earnings with a 10%+ dividend yield, the downside is cushioned, and our base case points to meaningful upside as WU transitions from decline back toward growth.