Reciprocal tariffs may be coming, but markets don’t care much just yet
Advisers have been instructed to come up with new tariff levels that consider fees and taxes placed on US exports
President Trump | Phil Mistry/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks
This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.
President Trump yesterday said his team is off to the races with reciprocal tariffs. Advisers have been instructed to come up with new tariff levels that consider fees and taxes placed on US exports.
The timeline is a bit uncertain. But Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick said the studies may be completed by early April. Lutnick, if confirmed, will work with the office of the US Trade Representative on establishing the new levies.
The import taxes, Trump said, will be designed on a country-by-country basis in order to offset tariffs on US exports and non-tariffs barriers, like exchange rates and value-added taxes.
Markets took Trump’s announcement well, a sign that his comments were not as bad as investors had feared, or at the very least it’s going to take several weeks for tariffs to be implemented. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both reversed midway through Thursday’s session to close 1% and 1.3% higher, respectively.
The uncertainty around the nature of the tariffs and when they may start is going to leave investors uneasy. But generally, we expect talk of tariffs — and therefore market impact — to die down a bit over the few weeks while advisers conduct their trade studies.
In the meantime, it’s primarily going to be data moving markets. Next week we’ll get some key manufacturing numbers as well as the minutes from the Fed’s FOMC meeting last month, both of which will be useful in determining how long the interest rate-cutting cycle may be paused.
Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:
- Blockworks Daily: Unpacking crypto and the markets.
- Empire: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.
- Forward Guidance: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.
- 0xResearch: Alpha directly in your inbox.
- Lightspeed: All things Solana.
- The Drop: Apps, games, memes and more.
- Supply Shock: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.
