Equity capital markets ‘wide open’ for crypto as BTC hits $106k
More crypto IPOs and M&A in the coming weeks could depend on bitcoin’s price, VanEck’s research head says
Steve Sanchez Photos/Shutterstock and Adobe modified by Blockworks
This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.
May has brought more crypto M&A, long-awaited US public listings, a milestone S&P 500 entrance and a bitcoin price surge. And we’re only two-thirds through the month.
In this environment, crypto equity diversification is the name of the game.
That’s according to Matthew Sigel, who is managing VanEck’s new Onchain Economy ETF (NODE).
“Thanks to tailwinds from the bitcoin price and the financial deregulation [from the] Trump administration and SEC, equity capital markets are wide open right now for anything crypto related,” Sigel told me. “That includes SPACs, IPOs and M&A. Expect much more capital formation in the space over the next month if bitcoin holds up.”
Though BTC has not yet reached the peak of ~$109,000 it hit in January, its level above $106,000 was the asset’s highest weekly close. BTC hovered around $105,800 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
All’s to say, BTC is holding up fine for now. So too is Coinbase stock (up +2% over the past five days), despite news of a security exploit and an SEC investigation — countering more bullish updates of its pending Deribit acquisition and inclusion in the S&P 500.
Various Wall Street analysts called COIN’s initial dip on the breach news a tad overblown, with Oppenheimer and Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirming buy ratings. An IMD report, which measures companies’ readiness for long-term trends, ranked Coinbase fifth in financial services — behind JPMorgan Chase and ahead of insurance giant Progressive.
The crypto exchange’s leapfrogging of financial players like HSBC and UBS is “because tokenized asset custody counts toward both growth expectations and innovation yield, two factors where many universal banks lag,” the report notes.
On the diversification point, Sigel is putting investor money where his mouth is. NODE invested in about 70 securities out of the gate — above its guidance of 30-60 and with a bunch of ~1% positions.
After VanEck’s spot bitcoin ETF, top holdings include COIN, Robinhood (just acquired Canada-based WonderFi), Galaxy Digital (listed on the Nasdaq last week), Mercado Libre and Strategy.
Speaking of MSTR, the Michael Saylor-led firm bought 7,390 more bitcoin last week (and now holds 576,230 BTC in total). Other companies continue doing the same.
Metaplanet has accelerated its bitcoin buys, revealing its latest purchase of 1,004 BTC on Monday. The company has nearly doubled its BTC stack over the last seven weeks (from 4,046 on March 31 to 7,800 BTC).
Nasdaq-listed DigiAsia indicated in a Monday news release that its board of directors approved a plan to create a bitcoin treasury reserve. It’s seeking a $100 million capital raise to build a BTC position and execute “crypto-based yield strategies to optimize treasury performance.”
Many of the newly-forming “bitcoin balance sheet companies” are too small for institutional equity investors and will need to do follow-on deals to grow, Sigel said.
“It will be interesting to see how many of these deals can get done if bitcoin takes a pause for any reason,” he added. “What a super high volatility part of the market.”
As for bitcoin’s outlook, YouHodler markets chief Ruslan Lienkha noted that BTC’s latest price action — holding above $100,000 for 11 days and counting — “appears to be a consolidation phase, marked by accumulation, potentially setting the stage for another leg higher that could lead to a new all-time high.”
Bitcoin ETF inflows remain strong, with $667 million entering the US products yesterday. Lienkha views the $90k-$110k as “a psychologically and technically important price corridor” that BTC would be supported at, even following a retreat from a possible new peak.
Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:
- The Breakdown: Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily.
- Empire: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.
- Forward Guidance: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.
- 0xResearch: Alpha directly in your inbox.
- Lightspeed: All things Solana.
- The Drop: Apps, games, memes and more.
- Supply Shock: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.
